Internal Gaya Capital Estimates: Figures represent projected regulatory impacts and involve material uncertainty. Not investment advice.
TRUMP 2.0
Estimated Rollback.
The proposed rescinding of the 2009 Endangerment Finding is projected to fracture the environmental market into two distinct velocities.
Based on our internal analysis, the formal rescission of the Endangerment Finding (Feb 2026) marks a structural demolition of the legal basis for federal climate regulation. We estimate a potential −6.7% headwind to sector revenues for 2026, which represents an estimated $3.25B shortfall against the $48.2B baseline.
However, the "State Firewall" — jurisdictional GDP estimated at $9.24T — represents a primary buffer. For institutional investors, the "Bifurcation" suggests that while federal work in NEPA is expected to stall, state-mandated ESG and PFAS disclosure work is projected to reach new peaks in specific regions.
II. Fiscal Disruption & The Estimated Grant Gap
STAG & SRF Vulnerability (Projected)
The FY2026 WH request proposed a −$3.64B cut to State & Tribal Assistance Grants (STAG). While Congress rejected the headline cut, we estimate programmatic shifts will result in an effective ~4% reduction in available funding.
Estimated Funding Lag
IIJA funding is expected to serve as a "shield" for 2026, though we project the 2027 pipeline will see attrition in non-firewall states.
Market Headwind: 2025 vs 2026 (Internal Projections)
III. RFP Activity Tracker (Directional Estimates)
Tracking of public procurement activity reveals directional trends where physical demand competes with political rollback.
| Sub-Sector | Velocity Trend | Primary Driver | Activity Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| PFAS Remediation | TRENDING UP | MN PRISM Portal / WA Ecology | HIGH (Est.) |
| NEPA Assessments | TRENDING DOWN | Federal Pause / Executive Directives | LOW (Est.) |
| Air TICC (Stack Testing) | TRENDING UP | AI Data Center Power Loads | STABLE (Est.) |
| State Disclosure (SB 253) | TRENDING UP | CA Aug 2026 Deadlines | MAX (Est.) |
IV. Sub-Sector Strategic Outlook (Estimated)
Air Quality & TICC
Est. ResilientDespite methane rule rollbacks, TICC services (Testing, Inspection, Compliance) are expected to remain stable. The projected driver: The AI Power Gap forcing legacy plants into higher operation cycles.
- Stack Testing: Expected Increase
- Compliance Audits: Projected Stable
PFAS Risk Management
Est. GrowthWhile federal hazardous designations are under review, state-level mandates in MN and CA are expected to drive demand. Disclosure audits are projected to increase as corporations assess inventory for state-level liability.
- Remediation: Expected High Demand
- Disclosure Audits: Expected Up
V. Firewall Mechanics
The "Firewall GDP" represents an estimated $9.24T based on 22 jurisdictions where climate laws are codified in state statute.
CA Title 24
Est. $4.8B Savings Pool
NY LL97
Retrofit Mandates
Analysis for the 2026 Cycle.
Portfolio exposure estimates for the 2026-2027 cycle are available for private consultation.